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Preparing for a Big Score
SPOILERS AHEAD! BE WARNED!
Now you've settled into the Flit, it's time for a big score. You will need to prepare for such a daring robbery.
Unlocked with A Name Whispered in Darkness 4
Locked with Opening a Bundle of Oddities
Storylet appears in The Flit
|Look for the targets||3||74|| +6 Casing... (Rare: +8)
|+3 Suspicion +1 Shadowy|
|Examine the target||3||76||+6 Casing... +3 Shadowy||+1 Suspicion +1 Shadowy|
|Criminal assistance||3||78|| +6 Casing...
+30x Whispered Hint
| -2 Casing...|
|Scapegoats and alibis||3||80||+9 Casing...||+3 Suspicion|
|Formulate a plan||3||82||+9 Casing...||+1 Suspicion|
|The decoy||3||84|| +9 Casing...
|| -3 Casing...|
|Set your gang of hoodlums to business
||5||100||+18 Casing...||+3 Casing...|
|Dealing with Suspicion||0|| A Name Whispered in Darkness exactly 4
Casing... 5, 2, 50 x
|Dealing with suspicion|
|The Big Score: choose your target||0||Casing... 5||The Big Score: Choose a Target|
|Begin your heist!||0|| Casing... 5
||Begin the Heist|
|Sell information||0||Casing... 3||Sell information|
When should I use what options?
The math to calculate the average value of an option over many repetitions is called "Expected Value." To do this by hand, multiply the numeric value all possible outcomes by the percentage of it succeeding. For example, with "The Decoy" at its base difficulty (boosted Shadowy 84), you have a 60% chance of success (+9 Casing) and a 40% chance of failure (-3 Casing). When you do the math--0.6*9 + 0.4*-3 = 4.2--you see that on average you get 4.2 points every time (and it takes 3 actions, so that's 1.4 points per action), and that it would be more efficient, Casing-wise, to do an easier challenge, even if it only gives you 6 points per 3 actions. Since, at this difficulty, you also have a flat 40% chance of two points of Suspicion, "Formulate a plan" would still be better, since its penalty is only one point of suspicion (and no drop in casing), even if you don't care as much about Casing efficiency.
Likewise, using this math, we can see that "Set your gang of hoodlums to business" is more casing-efficient than "Well-planned villainy," but only if your success chance is above 80%--80% is dead even, but since realistically you don't have infinite actions, at 80% exactly you should use "Well-planned villainy" unless you are also trying to grind Shadowy.
In terms of pure Casing-per-action efficiency, if you can't 100% "Scapegoats and alibis" (the lowest challenge of the +9 casing options, aka 3 CPA) and you're not a PoSI, you are better off trying to Steal Paintings for the Topsy King, and choosing to "Steal a painting from a noted gallery," which gives 3 CPA on success at a much less difficult Shadowy challenge. (This is the same yield at 100% as "Well-planned villainy" and any 100% +9 options, but takes more clicks.)